Tarko A.
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences,
Professor of Mathematical Cybernetics,
Chief Researcher of the Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control» of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Abstract
Forecasts of a nuclear winter that can result from a large-scale nuclear war were obtained si First forecasts of a Nuclear winter that will result from a large-scale nuclear war were obtained simultaneously and independently by scientists of the USSR and the USA in 1983-1985. The main factor causing a Nuclear winter is the powerful fires that have arisen as a result of the bombing of large cities, which have turned into “fire tornadoes”. The magnitude of the temperature drop at different points of the earth’s surface ranges from -5 to -50 degrees. The forecasts received by Soviet scientists of the USSR in 1988 are presented. for the case of the consequences of a large-scale nuclear war for an isolated human population and obtained by US scientists for the regional war between India and Pakistan in 2008-2022. The simulation results showed that the consequences of this regional conflict can have significant global consequences.

Keywords: Nuclear winter forecasts, nuclear arsenal, forced optimization, mathematical models of global climate and biosphere processes, high spatial resolution of the model, food security.